There is no doubt in Colin Mason’s mind that climate change is real, that by 2030 we will run out of hydrocarbons, a population of 8.3 billion will result in malnutrition or starvation for millions and unless we curb our aggressive ways, conflicts will be more brutal and frequent.

Mason’s contention is that we have to take action now or “history may have only a very short way to run.” As the title of his book indicates, he considers that a global crisis will peak in 2030 which would lead to a potentially apocalyptic period. Quite a few people would agree with that.

In Part 1, Is there a Crisis? He runs through the evidence and predicted outcomes at a brake neck speed. In the chapter One World he describes the benefits of a world authority and world laws. In The Fourth Horseman, he admits to a “violently controversial view, - that deliberate killers who find pleasure in murder exist” and asks “To what extent are such people the ‘spark plugs’ that fire up major wars and massacres?”

It is in these two chapters that the book seems to lose its authority, whether you agree with his Oneworld concept or his contention on how wars start.

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He acknowledges that he will not write in detail about subjects in which he is not an expert. Unfortunately the result is not very good popular science. In the further three Parts the focus is lost and Mason presents a mixed bag of polemic, revisting ideas and rehearsing statistics.

There is speculation that there are mineral reserves in deep oceans valued at trillions of dollars. He writes, “These assets and the increasing feasibility of mining them, bring into question earlier predictions that the world is within decades of exhausting its stocks of essential minerals.” Yet there is no consideration of what effect this will have on ocean ecosystems.

After detailing the depletion of fish stocks, pollution, the critical condition of coral reefs and the destruction of mangroves and salt marshes, Mason considers ‘farming the oceans.’

It has been estimated that 25 thousand tons of fertiliser – iron, trace elements, nitrogen and phosphorous would result in increased fish production of 50million tons. He does observe that this has “already proved controversial’; sea pirates come as a bit of an anticlimax after this.

Mason is obviously passionate about his subject and if he intends this to be a primer, he should be more critical of ideas, like deep ocean mining and ocean farming, which could have unknown and potentially disastrous consequences.

The final impression is of a book which starts well, but soon becomes a disparate collection of Mason’s interests and ideas. As such it detracts from the message and call to arms he so clearly wants to achieve.

A Short History of the Future: Surviving the 2030 Spike. Colin Mason, Earthscan, 2006. £14.99
ISBN-13: 978-1844073467

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